- Overall index declines (-1.4)
- Business activity measures fell in short term (-5.8), as did outlook (-4.4)
- Other measures a mixed bag but retrospective household finances slump (-2.6)
The first month of 2025 saw a decline in consumer confidence, according to the latest data from YouGov and the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr). The overall index fell from 112.5 to 111.1 for an overall deterioration of -1.4 points.
YouGov collects consumer confidence data every day, conducting over 6,000 interviews a month. Respondents answer questions about household finances, property prices, job security and business activity, capturing their views on the past 30 days and on their forecast for the coming 12 months.
The most significant movements in January’s index were in our measures tracking employee perceptions of business activity. Retrospective scores dipped from 115.4 to 109.6 (-5.8) – the largest month-on-month drop since April 2020 (the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic). Over the same period, outlook went from 126.9 to 122.5: a slump of -4.4 points and the largest month-on-month drop since August 2022. Our data from last month suggested that eight in ten Britons believed the UK economy was in a bad state.
Job security measures were more of a mixed bag. Employees were more likely to report an improved sense of security over the past 30 days, with scores rising from 114.3 to 115.4 (+1.1), but outlook declined from 119.2 to 117.6 (-1.6).
Similarly, household finance measures went from 95.3 to 92.7 (-2.6): the largest month-on-month drop since August 2022. Outlook rose from 99.9 to 100.7 (+0.8), re-entering positive territory for the first time since July 2024.
January was a gloomier month for homeowners, although both measures remain positive overall. Perceptions of house prices over the past 30 days fell from 119.2 to 117.6 (-1.6), while outlook fell from 131.6 to 131.4 (-0.2).
Christopher Breen, Head of Economic insight at Cebr, said: “The UK economy was hit by the January blues in the new year, as a combination of poor data outturns and ongoing concerns about the impacts of upcoming tax changes dampened the economic mood music. Consumers have clearly internalised these developments, with confidence over backward- and forward-looking business activity falling sharply. However, consumers are not yet translating these concerns into fears over their own situations, with forward looking job security and household finances confidence remaining robust. With employment looking like it might be entering a downturn, it remains to be seen if consumers are at all over-optimistic.”
Will Ullstein, UK CEO of YouGov, said: “YouGov’s consumer confidence index is an aggregate of several individual measures. While drops in perceptions of business consumers maintained a positive outlook on job security and house prices, the big iness activity are obviously a cause for concern. We will be watching next months’ figures closely to see if a trend is developing.”
