YouGov gets it right on X-Factor, predicts James Arthur win

In a poll of X-Factor watchers conducted before last night’s final, YouGov accurately predicted that James Arthur would be crowned the winner. The poll, which was published in The Sun on Saturday, also correctly predicted that Jahmene Douglas would be the runner-up, and that Christopher Maloney would be eliminated on Saturday night.

According to the X-Factor, the Saturday voting numbers were 51.7% for James, 31.5% for Jahmene, and 16.8% for Christopher. YouGov’s figures were James 50% (-1.7), Jahmene 35% (+3.5), and Christopher 15% (-1.8).

Banner year for YouGov

YouGov’s success in predicting the final three comes as the latest achievement in what has been a banner year for the company. In November, YouGov received international plaudits for accurately predicting the result of the US presidential election within a percentage point of the popular vote. YouGov also correctly predicted that Boris Johnson would win the London mayoral election, held in May.

Joe Twyman, Director of Political and Social Research said:

“Going against what betting markets and commentators were saying to correctly predict the X-Factor result is the culmination of what has been a great 2012 for YouGov. Our ability to get it right in what are fiendishly difficult contests to model sets us apart from other research agencies. From who will occupy the White House to who will be the next big reality star, we have consistently shown that we can predict outcomes with a high degree of precision.”

For more information contact YouGov PR Executive Harris MacLeod

See the full poll results here

And click here for the full original press release

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