Strictly: the race for fourth

Matthew SmithHead of Data Journalism
November 04, 2016, 1:36 PM GMT+0

Over the past few weeks Ore, Danny and Louise have cemented themselves as the top three in our tracking survey.

But while the scrap at the bottom gets increasingly fraught, who will finish fourth and even challenge the triumvirate at the top of the tree?

Following an initial burst of public adoration that saw him charge to the head of the rankings, Judge Rinder has subsequently been near the top of the rankings since. Last week’s Paso Doble was a hit with judges and public alike, seeing him leapfrog Danny Mac when it comes to who viewers want to win. However, while it seems as though many see him as a fun contestant, few thinking he can take home the glitterball trophy. Among viewers with an opinion just 34% think he is most likely to win.

After a very well-received American Smooth, Claudia Fragapane has done herself no harm and is well in the mix for a high finish. One in ten viewers with an opinion now want her to win, her highest score during the course of the series. When it comes to how many think she will win, however, she fares less well with just 7% thinking she will ultimately prevail. While this puts her fourth in this list, it is still only half the levels of support she had at the start of the series.

The other remaining contestants outside the top three – namely Daisy Lowe, Laura Whitmore, Greg Rutherford and Ed Balls – enjoy notable lower positions in the rankings. At this stage it would take a series of fantastic dances to nudge them up the rankings towards fourth. Going into the weekend it seems likely that, barring a big shock, the dance of will be between two of these contestants.

At the top of the pile, the top three of Louise Redknapp, Ore Oduba and Danny Mac secured their places at the top of the tree, with Louise in particular having a good week. Among viewers with an opinion, these three now take up 57% of support when it comes to who they would most like to win and 79% in terms of who is most likely to win. With these positions solidifying there is less room for anyone else to get a look in.

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