It may seem now like an event that happened in another life, but the morning when we awoke to discover we had voted to leave the European Union was only a month ago.
The last four weeks have probably been the most tumultuous British politics have seen since the Second World War. We've changed prime ministers, seen virtual civil war breaking out in the main opposition party and, most of all, had to get our heads round a future few of us imagined we would now be facing. All this in four weeks. What’s interesting is the effect these momentous events have had on our perceptions of what the future may now hold for us. How does it look to you?
For those utterly committed to one side or the other in the referendum campaign the outlook is probably unchanged. The true zealots in the Brexit camp will still believe that nirvana is just round the corner. Their counterparts in Remain will believe that we are already strapped into the handcart on our way to hell. But most people, especially those for whom 'Europe' was never a major concern, probably voted on what they saw as the balance of pros and cons rather than through any very deep-seated commitment. People in this group have had a month to adjust their views to the new reality.
The first indications that some voters might have changed their minds have been spotted (or at least imagined) among those who voted to leave. The idea that they might be suffering a form of buyer's remorse rests on the belief that few had actually expected Leave to win and, therefore, they'd never have to face up to whatever the consequences might be. But they did win – and with a clear majority. This is where "Project Fear" would become a reality - or so many Remainers continued to claim. And that raised hopes on their side that if enough Leavers showed genuine remorse it left the door open to another referendum at some unspecified time in the future – another referendum with a different outcome. But that hope seems to be fading – replaced by the acceptance that Brexit means Brexit.
The fact is, life goes on. The roof has not fallen in and we have settled into a new stability much more quickly than we might have feared. Our new Prime Minister's style and manner feels like a calming antidote to the dizzying tumult of the last four weeks and the world has not stopped talking to us. Chancellor Merkel, far from turning the cold shoulder on Mrs May, went out of her way to sympathise with her wish to take time before embarking on the negotiations for exit. Even President Hollande was relatively sympathetic. So perhaps those negotiations themselves won’t be so bloody and ultimately harmful to British interests as many Remainers feared. Australia is already knocking on our door wanting a new trade deal.
All in all, then, the abiding mood seems to be less one of the two camps digging in, confronting each other with claims that they were right all along, and more one of chin-stroking, of wondering whether the future may be less predictable than the campaigners of both sides tried to claim.
Another way of putting it is that we face huge uncertainty, particularly with regard to the long-term and whether Brexit will prove the making or the breaking of Britain. The near-to-medium term seems clearer. It seems unlikely that we shall avoid at least a temporary hit to the economy with growth lower, tax revenues hit and government ambitions on both spending and lowering levels of debt having to be revised. The new chancellor, Philip Hammond, has already said he may have to 'reset' the government's plans in the Autumn Statement.
Equally, it seems hard to see how the government will be able to avoid having to devote huge amounts of its energy over the next few years to the matter of extricating ourselves from the EU at the expense of other things it might have wanted to do. That may well prove wearisome for everyone concerned. As economists would put it, the short-term 'opportunity cost' of leaving the EU may be substantial.
But will it be worth it in the long run? It's the unavoidable uncertainty around that question that has been fuelling the impression of shifting attitudes among voters in both camps over the last month. And at the core of that uncertainty is the fact that we don’t really know how our current partners in the EU will choose to negotiate.
The case can be put that they will be uncompromisingly tough and, equally, that they will see the need to be more accommodating. They will be tough in order to discourage any other EU country from being tempted to go down the same route as we have gone. They will be helpful if they feel the need to assuage opinion in their own countries (on such matters as the free movement of labour and the influx of immigrants) where parties on the extremes are gaining traction by voicing their own anti-EU views.
What is certain is that Britain will be negotiating with an EU that is itself subject to dynamic, possibly tumultuous change of its own, over the next year or so. Serious negotiation is unlikely to begin until after the German elections in the autumn of 2017, by which time we could well have very different governments in Holland, Italy and France. After what's happened here over the last month, we should now expect the unexpected to happen in Europe too.
So, a month on, how does our decision to leave the EU now look to you? Do you feel confirmed in the views you took before the vote, or have your views started to change? Are you more or less optimistic about Britain's future than you were? And if you had the chance, would you change the way you voted on 23 June?
Let us know what you think.
Image from PA
