Opinion Formers' views on the volatile political landscape

YouGov
April 07, 2015, 4:04 PM GMT+0

With just four weeks to go until the most unpredictable UK General Election in generations we asked our Opinion Formers for their views on the volatile political landscape.

The coalition’s scorecard

As the curtain falls on the coalition’s time in government the Opinion Formers’ views on the government are broadly positive.

When asked to rate the performance of key political figures, the Chancellor George Osborne and Home Secretary Theresa May emerge as the best performers with more than half of Opinion Formers saying that they are doing a good job. In comparison, each of the party leaders is seen in a less positive light: 41% think the Prime Minister is doing a good job, 24% think Nick Clegg is doing a good job and just 11% think Ed Miliband is doing a good job.

On the critical issue of the economy three in five (62%) think that the way the government has cut spending to reduce the deficit has been good for the economy and 41% think that the cuts have increased enterprise. Less positively for the coalition, more than half (52%) think that the way the government has cut spending has been done unfairly and in a potentially worrying sign for the Liberal Democrats 77% of Opinion Formers who voted for the party in 2010 think the cuts have been unfair.

Election result

After five years of coalition government and no sign of any party taking a convincing lead in the opinion polls it is unsurprising to find that just one in ten Opinion Formers anticipates any kind of majority government. Eight per cent think a Conservative majority is most likely, while just two per cent think a Labour majority is most likely.

Thirty per cent feel that some kind of coalition is the most likely result, though there is little agreement around the likely composition of that government with each of the following scenarios seen as equally likely:

  • a coalition government between Labour and the Liberal Democrats (9%)
  • a coalition government between Labour and the SNP (9%)
  • a coalition government between the Conservatives and UKIP (8%)

Although the UK’s First-Past-the-Post electoral system tended to produce single-party governments prior to 2010, the poll finds evidence to suggest that a coalition may well be the preferred outcome of the upcoming election as well. Around half of Opinion Formers feel that either a Conservative-Liberal Democrat (48%) or a Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition (46%) would be better than either an outright Conservative or Labour majority.

Post-election leadership races

Looking beyond the general election, we asked who the Opinion Formers thought would be the next leader of each of the three main parties.

The clear frontrunners for the role of leader of a post-Cameron Conservative party are Theresa May (37%) and Boris Johnson (35%). Interestingly, and despite the positive ratings for his performance mentioned above, George Osborne is off the pace with just 14% backing him to succeed David Cameron.

The picture is less clear when it comes to the Labour party where one in five think that either Alan Johnson (22%) or Yvette Cooper (20%) will take over should there be a change of leadership after the election. They are closely followed by both Chuka Umunna and Andy Burnham (both 16%), with the Shadow Chancellor trailing on just 7%.

The scenario for the Liberal Democrats – if Nick Clegg were to step aside - is the most clear cut of all three parties, with a third of respondents (34%) thinking that he will be replaced by Danny Alexander. However, if Alexander struggles to hold onto the Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey constituency in the face of the SNP surge north of the border the next most likely beneficiaries are Vince Cable (18%) and Tim Farron (15%).

YouGov completed online interviews with 795 opinion formers from its UK Opinion Formers Panel. Opinion Formers are leaders in their field from business, media, politics, NGOs, academia and beyond. Fieldwork was undertaken between 22nd January and 3rd February. The figures have not been weighted.