Welsh Methodology Changes

Welsh Methodology Changes
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As with all good polling organisations, we at YouGov are constantly looking to update our methods when we believe changes need to be made.

Having evaluated our performance in Wales for the European Elections, it became evident that minor adjustments were needed to continue our hard-won record for accuracy. To evaluate any changes, a survey of our Welsh panel was undertaken and original analysis conducted amongst over 4,000 Welsh respondents. Our initial analysis, and subsequent analysis of a smaller, more targeted sample, resulted in us making two minor changes to our sampling targets. The two changes are as follows:

• Reducing the Party Identity figures for Labour and Liberal Democrats and assigning these predominantly to others and those with no Party Identity.

• Updating newspaper readership figures to take into account changes since their original formation in 2010.

The result of these changes is that we will tend to see somewhat lower vote shares (both in Westminster and Assembly) for Labour and the Liberal Democrats in YouGov polls in Wales, while the Conservatives and UKIP are likely to benefit.

Westminster Vote Intention

New Weightings

Old Weightings

Labour

39

42

Conservative

24

23

LibDem

5

6

Plaid

12

12

UKIP

15

13

Others

6

5

NAW Constit. Vote Intention

New Weightings

Old Weightings

Labour

36

38

Conservative

22

21

LibDem

5

6

Plaid

19

20

UKIP

12

10

Others

4

4

NAW List. Vote Intention

New Weightings

Old Weightings

Labour

32

34

Conservative

20

23

LibDem

5

5

Plaid

17

18

UKIP

17

15

Others

3

3

Our up-dated stratification and weighting scheme have been applied to the July Welsh Political Barometer poll. 

How is the data analysed? 

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