The Coalition Government: One year on
On 11th May 2010, Britain’s first Coalition Government since 1945 was formed. Now, one year on, it is possible to look back at the story of those first 12 months, as told by YouGov’s Daily Polling data.
Originally launching in early 2010, YouGov’s development of Daily Polling was a first for the research industry in the UK. Each day a new, nationally-representative survey is conducted with a fresh sample of over 1,500 respondents. The questionnaire itself is comprised of a combination of regular tracking questions and ad-hoc questions pertinent to the broad news agenda of the day.
Daily Polling now takes place from Monday to Friday every week, having previously run seven days a week during the General Election campaign. One key advantage of such frequency of data collection is that, over a given period of time, it becomes possible to look at both the long term trends and also short term fluctuations caused by specific events. Turning points can be pinpointed and distinguished from temporary spikes with far greater authority.
For example, back in May 2010 the Conservative party won 37% of the popular vote at the General Election. It is shown in their Daily Polling data since then that, after an initial rise, the party’s support fell back and has now been broadly around the 36% mark for the last month or so. In other words: largely where they were at the formation of the Coalition.
As can be seen in the chart above, the long term trends in support for the Conservative’s coalition partners have, in contrast, been significantly less favourable. The Liberal Democrats won 24% of the vote at the General Election, but very quickly the trend was downwards, regularly achieving just 10% in November 2010 and then consistently dropping into single digits by December. Their support has remained at around that level ever since, less than half of where they were before entering the Coalition.
Labour continue to attract the highest level of support, first drawing level with the Conservatives in October 2010 and then consistently pulling ahead from December onwards, reaching a high of 45% for the first time in February. However, this upward trend has slowed in recent months, with the gap between the two main parties now closing once again.
Along with voting intention, government approval is one of the questions that YouGov asks on a daily basis, with net government approval equal to the percentage of respondents who approve of the government's record to date minus the percentage that disapprove.
In the UK, government approval has been asked in essentially the same way since the 1940s - albeit not always by us. During previous parliaments the figure for government approval has often correlated very strongly with support for the party in power. However, in a coalition context, government approval assumes a new importance.
As the chart above shows, net government approval has shown a strong downward trend for most of the Coalition’s first year. Although the Government did benefit from a honeymoon period, it effectively lasted as long as an actual honeymoon, with net approval moving into negative figures as early as August 2010.
This downward trend is in contrast to the fortunes of the senior partners in the Coalition Government. It is the Conservatives, who, as the data demonstrates, have instead effectively managed to maintain their level of support. The Lib Dems, on the other hand appear to be paying the price for the continued drop in government approval.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, when respondents are asked if they think the Coalition is working together well or badly the pattern is very similar.
The Daily Polling data offers explanations for why this decline in government approval may be occurring. YouGov regularly tracks which issues respondents think are the most important issues facing the country at this time.
On every single occasion this question has been asked since the election, the economy has been chosen significantly more than any other issue from the list provided, regularly selected by over three quarters of respondents. Similarly, it is also thought to be the most important issue facing respondents and their family.
With the economy so important it is perhaps of concern to government and their strategists that respondents are so pessimistic about the general state of Britain’s economy. The chart below shows the figure for net positivity when respondents are asked how good or bad is the state of Britain’s economy at the moment.
When respondents are then asked to look ahead, and think about how the financial situation of their household will change over the next 12 months, the pattern appears very similar.
It is important to note that in the chart above the ‘feel good factor’ that respondents have for their household’s financial situation (% getting better - % getting worse) largely fluctuates between -40% and -60%. In contrast, net positivity for the economy more generally moves between -60% and -80% across the same reporting period. Generally speaking, respondents are less positive about the economy as a whole compared to their own household.
However, while the long-term trends for the economy generally are broadly flat, household economic expectations show a stronger downward trend. Over the next twelve months, if these broad trends continues the gap may close as respondent’s personal expectations deteriorate, falling in line with their more general economic assessment.
Clearly perceptions of the Government’s handling of the economy will have an impact on these trends. Management of the economy is another aspect of the Coalition Government’s performance that YouGov investigates and, much like government approval more generally, the story of the first year is not a positive one.
In the chart above, the strong downward trend is clear. Net positivity first dropped into negative figures back in October and, despite some fluctuations along the way and a recent upturn in fortunes, the movement has been largely downwards throughout the twelve months.
Having respondents looking further ahead helps to provide some explanation for this trend. In addition to asking respondents about their household’s economic situation over the next twelve months, YouGov also asks about the longer term. Respondents are regularly given a list of common worries and asked which ones they think will affect people like them in the next two or three years.
Consistently topping the list is a perception that people like them will ‘suffer directly from cuts in spending on public services such as health, education and welfare’. This concern is regularly selected by more than 7 in 10 adults.
Close behind is the belief that people like them will ‘not have enough money to live comfortably’ - also a concern regularly held by 7 in 10 adults. Additionally, nearly two thirds of respondents selected ‘lose their job / have difficulty finding work’ to complete the top three most common worries.
The cuts in public spending introduced by the Coalition Government, of such concern to respondents, are an area YouGov explore in more detail. Specifically respondents are asked if they believe the way the government is cutting spending to reduce the government’s deficit is being done ‘fairly or unfairly’ and whether it is ‘good or bad for the economy’.
Looking at fairness, in the chart above, it is clear that from a very early stage in the life of the Coalition more people felt the cuts were being done unfairly rather than fairly.
The pattern is very similar in the chart below, looking at whether the cuts are viewed as being good or bad for the economy. However, while results for both questions correlate very closely, perceptions of fairness / unfairness are far less positive than those for good / bad for the economy.
In both cases the trends have been strongly downwards, but with fluctuations along the way, as opinions are influenced by events and the news agenda. These peaks and troughs of opinion are more pronounced in the latter of the two measures, suggesting those results are more receptive to what is taking place.
In addition to views on the cuts in general terms, YouGov also ask respondents if they think the way the Government is cutting spending is having an impact on their own life or not.
The chart above shows that over the reporting period there has been a movement from around a half of respondents thinking it was having an impact to over two thirds. If the range and scope of cuts is to increase it is highly likely that this data will continue its broad upward trend.
To summarise, in terms of party support, the Liberal Democrats are the ‘big losers’ after the first twelve months of the coalition. The Conservatives, on the other hand, can take comfort from the fact that their level of support has not fallen below where they were at the General Election.
It is perhaps of particular note that the Conservatives have managed to maintain such support despite deteriorating government approval, a difficult economic outlook and widespread scepticism over the measures taken thus far.
Over the next twelve months Daily Polling will continue to provide answers to questions including, perhaps most pertinently, whether or not the coalition government’s marriage of convenience is heading for divorce.
Joe Twyman is Director of Social and Political Research at YouGov and a lecturer in survey research methods at the University of Essex Summer School in Social Science Data Analysis
