Our latest daily polling figures for The Sun (fieldwork 17th-18th April) are:
- Conservative 32%
- Labour 26%
- Liberal Democrat 33%
- Others 8%
The first of the televised debates between the party leaders has transformed the election campaign. Our instant polling in the ten minutes following the debate showed that viewers thought that Nick Clegg had been the most impressive by a large margin, and this resulted in a huge surge of support for the Liberal Democrats that has left them narrowly ahead of the other parties.
Translated into seats, this would still leave the Liberal Democrats as the smallest party (with around 130 seats) and despite getting the lowest vote, Labour would retain the most seats (around 250, with the Conservatives on about 240).
The discrepancy is the result of efficient Liberal Democrat targeting in the past – their vote is concentrated in the seats they hold and a relatively small number of marginals. In the majority of constituencies the Liberal Democrats have less than 20% of the vote and would need a very large swing to win.
However, this all assumes a uniform swing towards the Liberal Democrats – if such a huge shift in support did occur at a general election it is hard to predict how the swing would work in practice.
The general election will be held on May 6. On a scale of 0 (certain NOT to vote) to 10 (absolutely certain to vote), how likely are you to vote in the general election?
0 - Certain NOT to vote: 4%
1: 0%
2: 1%
3: 2%
4: 1%
5: 3%
6: 1%
7: 3%
8: 5%
9: 11%
10 - Absolutely certain to vote: 68%
Don't know: 2%
Additional questions
All three main parties say they will reduce government borrowing sharply over the next few years, by raising taxes and/or cutting public spending. Leaving aside whether you support any of the particular policies the parties are putting forward, do you think, in each case, that their sums add up – that, if they implement their policies will they hit their target for reducing government borrowing?
Conservatives
Yes, their sums probably do add up: 21%
No, they probably don't add up: 56%
Not sure: 23%
Labour
Yes, their sums probably do add up: 24%
No, they probably don't add up: 52%
Not sure: 24%
Liberal Democrats
Yes, their sums probably do add up: 26%
No, they probably don't add up: 36%
Not sure: 37%
Here are some proposals that have been made in the current election. In each case, do you support or oppose it?
Tax: Scrap income tax on earnings of less than £10,000 a year. The £17billion cost of this will be paid for by a tax on bigger houses, a tax on airline flights, restricting tax relief on pensions savings for higher-rate taxpayers, and attempting to clamp down on tax avoidance.
Support: 66%
Oppose: 20%
Don't know: 14%
Defence: Replace Britain's Trident nuclear weapons system and develop a variant that is a lot cheaper but less powerful and possibly easier to detect and stop.
Support: 37%
Oppose: 37%
Don't know: 26%
Europe: Give the European Union more powers on justice issues, bank regulation, the flow of asylum seekers, limiting climate change and cooperate more on security and defence.
Support: 18%
Oppose: 65%
Don't know: 17%
Euro: scrap the Pound and join the Euro when the conditions are right.
Support: 21%
Oppose: 65%
Don't know: 14%
Immigration: Give an amnesty to 1 million illegal immigrants who have lived in Britain for ten years, speak good English and don't have a criminal record.
Support: 35%
Oppose: 49%
Don't know: 16%
Prisons: Allow 58,000 criminals a year to do community service instead of going to prison by banning jail terms of less than six months.
Support: 33%
Oppose: 50%
Don't know: 17%
Public sector pay: Limit pay rises for public sector workers for the next two years to £400 a year.
Support: 57%
Oppose: 24%
Don't know: 19%
Higher education: scrap university tuition fees over six years, and increase taxes to pay for this.
Support: 31%
Oppose: 48%
Don't know: 20%
Voting: Change the voting system for electing MPs, so that individual constituencies become much larger and parties are represented in parliament broadly in line with their national vote.
Support: 54%
Oppose: 16%
Don't know: 29%
Energy: Stop any new nuclear power stations from being built and attempt to solve the energy crisis by coal-fired power generation plants and wind turbines instead.
Support: 32%
Oppose: 41%
Don't know: 27%
Additional question (fieldwork 18th April):
Leaving aside how much you like or dislike them, how much do you feel you know what the following party leaders stand for?
Gordon Brown
I know a lot about what he stands for: 27%
A fair amount: 42%
Just a little: 17%
I know hardly anything about what he stands for: 14%
David Cameron
I know a lot about what he stands for: 20%
A fair amount: 42%
Just a little: 23%
I know hardly anything about what he stands for: 15%
Nick Clegg
I know a lot about what he stands for: 15%
A fair amount: 36%
Just a little: 29%
I know hardly anything about what he stands for: 19%
