The No side continues to lead on referendum voting intention
With our recent MRP showing Labour pushing the SNP into second place in terms of seats in Scotland, now the latest YouGov/Times Scotland voting intention survey shows Keir Starmer’s party marginally ahead of their nationalist rivals for the first time since the independence referendum in 2014.
One in three Scots (33%) currently they intend to vote for Labour at the forthcoming general election, giving the party a minor two point lead over the SNP (31%).
Our previous poll in this series – conducted in October 2023 – had the SNP just a single ahead of Labour, at 33% and 32% respectively.
The SNP have lost a fifth (20%) of their 2019 voters to Labour, and are currently holding on to 66% of those who backed them previously.
The Conservative vote share in Scotland has shifted more noticeably, falling six points since October to 14%. As with polling of the wider country, the Tory decline is in part due to the growth in Reform UK’s appeal, with their right wing rivals increasing their vote share by five points, from 2% to 7%.
The Tories are only holding on to 54% of their 2019 voters, having lost 19% to Labour and 22% to Reform UK.
Elsewhere, the Liberal Democrats are on 7% (+2) and the Greens are on 5% (no change).
Holyrood voting intention
When it comes to Holyrood constituency voting intention, the SNP are still holding on to their lead – barely. Currently Humza Yousaf’s party are only two points ahead of Labour, at 34% and 32% respectively. This is compared to the eight point lead they held in October.
When it comes to the regional vote, the two parties are neck and neck, at 29% apiece. The two parties had also been tied in October’s poll (at 28%).
The Conservatives are a distant third in both votes, on 15-16%, while the Lib Dems are on 8-9%, while the Greens are on 9% of the regional vote and 4% of the constituency vote.
Independence vote
The story is static when it comes to Scottish independence. Currently 53% of Scots say they would vote No in a repeat of the 2014 referendum, compared to 47% who would vote Yes – this is the same split as it was the last time we asked in September 2023.
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Photo: Getty
