YouGov goes daily

Peter KellnerPresident
May 16, 2011, 5:38 AM GMT+0

YouGov can announce today two major innovations, which we are launching in partnership with Sky News.

First, YouGov will conduct daily polls each weekday during the Labour and Conservative Party conferences. We shall be reporting voting intention and public reaction to major speeches, policy announcements and political events.

YouGov will poll a fresh sample of 1000 adults online every weekday throughout Great Britain. This represents a major breakthrough in tracker research. Past “daily” tracker polls in Britain, as in the US, have generally involved only 250 fresh interviews each day, with “daily” data reflecting four days of research. YouGov’s polls for Sky News will provide a completely fresh and up-to-date report of daily shifts in the public mood.

Secondly, YouGov will be surveying viewers’ responses to the keynote speeches of Gordon Brown and David Cameron, reporting findings on Sky News at 5pm, within two hours of the end of each speech. These will be the fastest scientific, full-scale surveys ever conducted in Britain. As Britain’s pioneering online polling company, YouGov is delighted to partner Britain’s pioneering 24-hour news channel, to bring the public’s voice, without delay, into the heart of the news and public debate.

YouGov has spent some time developing these innovative services, in order to be able to provide the fastest, fullest, most frequent and most accurate assessment of public opinion now and at the coming general election. We have developed new, proprietary software to ensure that we can obtain reliable samples in under 24 hours. Until now, fieldwork for our regular surveys has normally lasted 48 hours. This is because there can be modest, but statistically significant, differences between those YouGov panel members who respond quickly to our surveys and those who respond more slowly. Our new sampling methods allow us to obtain the views of both “fast” and “slow” responders within 24 hours, and so provide more up-to-date figures than ever before.

In recent weeks, YouGov has been conducting parallel tests, using both our new method, and our more traditional sampling methods, which have established us as Britain’s most consistently reliable polling organisation. Last year we were the only polling company to show Boris Johnson consistently ahead of Ken Livingstone in the contest for London mayor; our final poll forecast Johnson’s victory exactly. This year, our final poll ahead of the elections to the European parliament was the most accurate of any polling company. Our parallel tests have shown that our new sampling methods are as reliable as our traditional methods.

Over the past week, YouGov has been conducting daily surveys in preparation for our polls for the next two weeks. They show the impact of the Liberal Democrat conference, with support for the Lib Dems peaking at 23% during the 24 hours following Nick Clegg’s speech on Wednesday. Labour, which started the week on 30%, suffered as the week, and the Lib Dem, conference, proceeded. Our final poll last week, conducted between Thursday afternoon and Friday morning, showed Labour slipping badly to 24%, 16 points behind the Conservatives.

How will the public respond to the Labour and Conservative conferences – the last to be held before the coming election? Will there be a “Brown bounce” following the Prime Minister’s speech tomorrow? If there is, will it last? YouGov and Sky News will be able to answer these questions faster and better than ever before.