YouGov’s daily tracking polls through the conference season have brought mainly good news for the Conservatives and bad news for Labour. But they also suggest that David Cameron has not yet ‘sealed the deal’ with the electorate. Our latest poll, ahead of the Tory leader’s end-of-conference speech, shows why.
The Conservative lead is down five points on the previous day. A part of this could well be due to sampling fluctuations; but it may also reflect some concern with the measures that George Osborne announced on Tuesday. Initial public reaction was favourable: Conservative support rose to 43%, its highest of the conference season. Most people backed tough pay curbs on public service workers, although opinion was more divided on Mr Osborne’s plan to bring forward the date when the state retirement age is raised to 66. In general, his tone of candour seemed to go down well.
However, some voters seem to have had second thoughts. Today’s three-point fall in Tory support is the sharpest movement we have seen in the party’s rating through our daily conference polls. With Labour climbing to 31%, its highest of these daily polls, the Tory lead has dipped to nine points. Given the way votes translate into seats, a nine-point lead is not enough to give the Conservatives a working majority in the House of Commons – and may not be enough to give them a majority at all.
There are, of course, likely to be further movements in the weeks and months ahead: one poll taken more than six months before a general election, especially one conducted during the conference season, cannot be taken as a reliable predictor of the eventual election result. However, other questions from our latest poll should give Mr Cameron cause for concern.
60% agree that the Conservative leader’s own background means he ‘doesn’t understand the problems normal people face in their everyday lives’. And half the public thinks the main priority of a Conservative government would be to protect the interests of the rich – while just 4% believes the party’s own assertions that its main priority will be to protect the poor.
There is better news for the Conservatives from a different pair of questions, about whether the leaderships of the two main parties are being straight with the public about the tough decisions that will be needed over the next few years to reduce government borrowing. Only 23% think Labour’s leadership is being straight, while the figure for the Tories is 40%. But while Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne have reason to be pleased that their figure is so much higher than Labour’s they should be a little concerned that their own figure is not higher than it is.
None of this should be taken to mean that the Conservatives are in electoral trouble. Labour’s image remains far weaker than the Conservatives’; and Labour’s annual conference failed to generate the breakthrough that Gordon Brown so badly needed. But if – and it’s a mammoth ‘if’ – the Conservative lead remains in single figures through this autumn, then the coming general election could yet provide a tougher challenge for Mr Cameron’s campaigning skills than seemed likely a few weeks ago.
